As far as I know VP created Ogg Theora so the business will probably not happen in any other way than open source.

Yet the youtube beta is H264 and concerning the popularity this could certainly be a "snowball reaction" It's small when you let it roll off the hill and becomes huge at the bottom.
-by this I mean youtube could inspire other video sharing services to move towards H264...

Is google simply taking it's time to deliver a blow with VP8/9

And then the other thing, why the burning desperation to get flash out of the way?
I mean it's been cumbersome and annoying at times, but it has proven to be a reliable technology?