It's very difficult to see how Ubuntu Phone will turn out, either near or long term. Most of the UX and lack of native apps probably reflects a lack of development focus, as they've taken far longer and had far more blockers to clear at a basic OS level than they hoped.

However they have a deal with a huge Chinese OEM that will almost certainly make it big in the West in 2015, so even if it's a shadow of what it should be, they're going to pick up a few users and a lot of exposure.