View Single Post
Posts: 67 | Thanked: 32 times | Joined on Oct 2011
#81
There is some risk but there's something like Expected Value in a bet. It's like summing all events and outcomes from it. The Fair Game has Expected Value at 0 meaning playing for a few years won't get you substantially reacher or poorer. The casino cash machines or Lotto bets has Expected Value under minus five cents meaning Lotto or Las Vegas would get statistically only reacher. The chance calculated depends on what we already know - knowing if dice result is odd or even has substantial effect of knowing if it would be ie. 6 or 1 and it's still worth mention if we bet on 1-3 range. Nokia indirectly claimed that expected value is more than 20$ per unit (so you mostly win by betting on nokia but it's not a certain win) while it was more like minus 30$ knowing what Elop would do (still about minus 5$ with decision already told). I aproximated these values which may not be real beacuse I don't know value of unit of nokia shares but it mostly desribes the reasoning.

The difference on "risk" and "uncertainty" spoken by person before is he mentioned risk is in Fair Game meaning expected value is at 0$ so you have same chances winning a 1$ as loosing 1$, while betting on company shares gives you plus a few to a few hundreds of dollars statistically on unit while there's not fully certain if it go as good or worse (you mostly get something like no lower than +1$ instead of calculated +5$, you can get even +100 dolars if you are lucky enough, but you have to be very unlucky to gain -5$ that mean loosing 5$).

The Expected Value is most important for bet game - this is why Lotto bets with milons or billions of people and is still winniing money (that mean they not only haven't bakrupted but also get constant gain). The most easy model of Expected Value is Weighted Mean of lose/win result with weight beeing probability of event, but if events are infinite or there are quadrilions possible events, more complicated models are used - if you want know about them, look somewhere else.

Last edited by majaczek; 2012-05-09 at 15:53.