I am one of them who thinks Microsoft put Elop at the head of Nokia in order to let them abandon the open source path. Nobody of us knows the truth except the actors, but looking at the N9 launch, it looks like all that (Elop->Symbian->Meego affairs) had been done because it was dangerous to leave IBM and Nokia to act together.
And think about North America: Nokia never had a great success in the USA because they never went down to strict agreements with the carriers. DAMN, in the US you have to pay to RECEIVE a message. It's something totally different against the rest of the world. And now it looks like for WP7 there will be huge agreements with carriers for subsidizing. I will never buy a susidized phone for myself. For my business and if it is convenient yes, but not for my private life.
Everything is centered on the service, the HW is a surplus. As baron BIC said once, gift them with razors because they will buy blades. Sorry, I want to decide my blades.
Again on topic, I think momcilo centered well the matter. We have to fix a path, and then to start following it.
About option 1, I discarded it because I don't think it will happen. Let's say if we have any news from the Council, but I sincerely am not hoping anything from Nokia, sorry. I will be glad to be wrong.