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misterc's Avatar
Posts: 1,625 | Thanked: 998 times | Joined on Aug 2010
#370
agree with your post's general idea(s) as well as most examples [...]
have however one point where i beg to differ, namely networking respectively speed thereof:

Originally Posted by zwer View Post
[...]As the 'terminal experiment' in the 70s and 80s proved - there is a good reason why you need a localized hardware: breakthroughs in silicon advance much faster than breakthroughs in telecommunications. There is a reason it failed then, and there is a reason it will fail now - Moore's law simply does not apply to telecommunications.
this is nowadays replaced (or resuscitated?) with / by Citrix; plain office clerk doesn't need a i7, not even a i5, leave alone 4GB of RAM to work.
the few users that do actual number crunching, Computer Assisted tasks (CAx) or the like can still get a "fat computer" and connect to the (Citrix) network for office tasks.

Originally Posted by zwer View Post
If it did, even if we take a starting point of v.34 modems when the most nooks were ironed out, in 1994 we had 28.8 kb/s (bauds, but let's roughly translate them to bits), we'd all be sporting 120Mbps connections now. For WiFi the stats are even grimmer - in 2000 we had 802.11b with 11Mbps rate, so if the Moore's law worked we'd all be having 45Gbps WiFi connections now. And I'm not even calculating the availability and general demand that makes deploying such networks, especially wireless ones with their limited frequencies and interference, next to impossible. To move everything to the cloud and still have a wireless access to it, we'd need to move the frequencies a couple notches up to the X-ray spectrum as radio waves cannot simply pack that much data. It's a physical limitation, not a technological one.

And then you have the issue of creating a server (farm) fast enough to serve all those terminals with such high demands, which means you'd have to build a couple of nuclear power plants next to it just to supply it with a juice, and probably put it on Arctic as there's just no way to cool off so much processing at one centralized location... No matter how optimized the solution might be, it just cannot work...

[...]
i live in a residential area where i can get 120Mbps; admittedly i have a cable connection.
with ADSL i'd be stuck @ 20Mbps, but this isn't a technological limit (2010 stats) , it is administrative rubbish (Moore’s Law and Communications)
this is simply the result of monopolistic markets (national carriers / providers) where entering is difficult; and the administrative decrees that competitors have to be allowed don't do the trick, as (in the mobile market) T-Mobile's efforts to leave the US market prove.
nota-bene: in South-Korea, the available speeds are not a consequence of competition but of the government giving the national operator the mission to provide that service

the same situation (i.e. dominant position in the market) that made NOKIA feel very comfortable until it was too late.
when Apple started the iPhone and Google followed suit with Android, they simply had no idea what to do... they kept doing what they had been doing for years, releasing Symbian (or Maemo) devices with outstanding hardware, but not up to market's expectations.
and then, Flopocalypse...
A strong conviction that something must be done is the parent of many bad measures.
- Daniel Webster