maybe the question shouldn't be whether wp will fail, but how quickly.

the only reason why m@ke$$h!t, oups, sorry, m$, of course, is where it is now is because 30 yrs ago, there was a vacuum that the company could fill.
this is not the case (any more) in the mobile phone area, not even in the smart phone market.
thus m$ will fail, as miserably as its products are crappy.
if NOKIA's management realises this quickly enough, they may have time to (re-)commit to MeeGo.
neither iPotatos nor android needed five years to establish themselves, did they?
and even though iPotatos mostly owe their success to a phenomenal sales (Steve) Job(s), android hardly had anything but being free and backed by a "stable" company going for it.
both of which MeeGo has too by now

so long and thanks for all the fish NOKIA