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gerbick is offline gerbick
07-20-2012 , 04:52 AM
Posts: 5,359 | Thanked: 8,430 times | Joined on Jul 2007 @ undecided.
#1921
Originally Posted by specc View Post
You have become very 1D and shallow all of a sudden Mr gerbick.
Because I don't like it when people overlook the entire picture just to satisfy their minor, myopic agendas. So I tend to match them.

Take the hint.

Just saying. Nokia will survive no matter what happens to WP8. That is what the numbers tell us. If WP8 is a flop, Nokia will have lost any hope for smartphones for a long time though.
Thus the no Plan B discussions above.
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specc is offline specc
07-20-2012 , 05:04 AM
Posts: 320 | Thanked: 215 times | Joined on Feb 2012
#1922
Originally Posted by danramos View Post
I think you forget that part of the Osborne effect is that you render your current product obsolete with the announcement of the new product. Android 2.2 still runs new applications and updates (as evidenced by the Galaxy Tab 7 I have right here running Android 2.3.5... running NEW applications that might even have features for newer devices). It's not rendered obsolete by the newer products, in the case of Android. Whereas, Windows Phone 8 applications cannot run in Windows Phone 7 and there was not upgrade path from Windows 7.5 devices which already were only JUST got released recently. Gun. Foot. Shoot-BAM!
No, I didn't forget. Again this is speculative theoretical nonsense. WP7.X users will be the majority for a long time. New apps will be written for WP7 and can also run on WP8. Gradually as the WP8 user base increases, the most advanced apps will run on WP8 exclusively. Unless the apps have HW demands that require WP8, it will make no sense for a developer to target a minority only, when he can target that minority AND the majority by creating WP7.X apps.

It is not a optimal situation, but the theoretical implications can be made to be much larger than the real life implications. Of course, the closer we get to the release of WP8, more people will hold purchasing. But this is no Osborne effect, this is only natural because people like having the newest bling.
 
specc is offline specc
07-20-2012 , 05:20 AM
Posts: 320 | Thanked: 215 times | Joined on Feb 2012
#1923
Originally Posted by gerbick View Post
Because I don't like it when people overlook the entire picture just to satisfy their minor, myopic agendas. So I tend to match them.

Take the hint.



Thus the no Plan B discussions above.
I don't take the hint. I don't have any agenda. What should that be? I just don't like discussing this an a basis of what some people feel about Elop and the gang. It makes no sense discussing Nokia stock on that basis. It's childish.

I get the impression that most of you want Nokia to go down the drain because of what you feel about Elop and the way he has canned your little toy. And in particular now as this new Jolla toy seems to be available. So Nokia deserves to go down the drain, and you build all your arguments on that basis, refusing to see the facts starring you in the face.

So, who has an agenda here?
 
Cue is offline Cue
07-20-2012 , 06:09 AM
Posts: 840 | Thanked: 816 times | Joined on Nov 2009
#1924
Originally Posted by specc View Post
No, I didn't forget. Again this is speculative theoretical nonsense. WP7.X users will be the majority for a long time. New apps will be written for WP7 and can also run on WP8. Gradually as the WP8 user base increases, the most advanced apps will run on WP8 exclusively. Unless the apps have HW demands that require WP8, it will make no sense for a developer to target a minority only, when he can target that minority AND the majority by creating WP7.X apps.

It is not a optimal situation, but the theoretical implications can be made to be much larger than the real life implications. Of course, the closer we get to the release of WP8, more people will hold purchasing. But this is no Osborne effect, this is only natural because people like having the newest bling.
You are the only one posting based on emotions and pure conjecture with little based on reality.

People do not write WP7 apps because the install base is small, that's the problem. That's partly why they changed to WP8 so that developers "write an app once" for Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8. It was to provide that app developing incentive with them leveraging an instant install base from their PC market. If you think people will now be writing WP7 apps when they were finding little reason to already you are agian delusional.
 
specc is offline specc
07-20-2012 , 07:43 AM
Posts: 320 | Thanked: 215 times | Joined on Feb 2012
#1925
Originally Posted by Cue View Post
You are the only one posting based on emotions and pure conjecture with little based on reality.

People do not write WP7 apps because the install base is small, that's the problem. That's partly why they changed to WP8 so that developers "write an app once" for Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8. It was to provide that app developing incentive with them leveraging an instant install base from their PC market. If you think people will now be writing WP7 apps when they were finding little reason to already you are agian delusional.
Of course. 100k apps just popped up out of nowhere. Not a single person wrote those.

What exactly IS your point? Hard to admit you are wrong?
 
kojacker is offline kojacker
07-20-2012 , 08:11 AM
Posts: 1,071 | Thanked: 2,893 times | Joined on Jan 2010
#1926
Originally Posted by kojacker View Post
Right now the Nokia stock price is rallying remarkably well. This time yesterday it was trading pre-market at $1.62, and finished the day's trading at $1.73. Right now it's trading in pre-market up 8% at $1.87. In just over an hour's time (8am EDT) is the Q2 announcement, I'll be interested to see how the price moves at that stage.
What a difference a day makes - yesterday's gains have disappeared for the moment and NOK is currently back down trading at $1.77 again on pre-market.

Also, Fitch downgrades NOK from BB+ to BB-, outlook negative
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Nokia's (NYSE: NOK) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating to 'BB-' from 'BB+'. The Outlook on the Long-term IDR is Negative.

Fitch had previously guided that it would take a negative rating action if it was not convinced that Nokia could stabilise the revenue declines and be capable of generating positive single digit operating margins in its Devices and Services division. The release of Nokia's Q212 results indicate that the company is currently not near this position and Fitch is not convinced that this can be attained anytime soon.
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volt's Avatar
volt is offline volt
07-20-2012 , 09:15 AM
Posts: 1,291 | Thanked: 1,140 times | Joined on Nov 2008
#1927
While NYSE isn't open yet, the Swedish and Finnish stock exchanges have the numbers ready:

NOK1V is down 6,19 percent today. Any positive effect from Thursday is gone again. Down 26,64% this month.

NOKI-SEK is down 6,81. Down 29,61% this month.

And from todays news:
Debt rating: "Nokia Debt Rating Cut to Junk at Fitch"
Targets: "Nokia revival hopes fade as analysts cut targets‎"
Also an interesting story about how Nokia invented the iPhone, or something like that. It's time for the afterword.

Source: Google News, 24 hours span, keyword Nokia.

I don't claim to be an analyst but it's pretty easy to see what the analysts think.

What we're seeing in this thread is a Hydra/Troll hybrid, and I am sorry for feeding it it's own heads.
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Last edited by volt; 07-20-2012 at 09:19 AM.
 
cheve is offline cheve
07-20-2012 , 10:31 AM
Posts: 361 | Thanked: 141 times | Joined on Mar 2008
#1928
Originally Posted by specc View Post
No, I didn't forget. Again this is speculative theoretical nonsense. WP7.X users will be the majority for a long time. New apps will be written for WP7 and can also run on WP8. Gradually as the WP8 user base increases, the most advanced apps will run on WP8 exclusively. Unless the apps have HW demands that require WP8, it will make no sense for a developer to target a minority only, when he can target that minority AND the majority by creating WP7.X apps.

It is not a optimal situation, but the theoretical implications can be made to be much larger than the real life implications. Of course, the closer we get to the release of WP8, more people will hold purchasing. But this is no Osborne effect, this is only natural because people like having the newest bling.
I think you are also speculating as well.

Originally Posted by specc View Post
WP7.X users will be the majority for a long time
Let us assume there are 8M WP7.x users now. If these are the majority for a long time to come, then it would only mean that Nokia/MS is not moving the new WP8 device. How long can Nokia last if people are NOT buying the new WP8 devices?

If the majority of your user base is WP7.x and older devices and it will be remain so for a long time, then what is the real advantage for the developer to develop/upgrade the App for the WP8(which IS the minority at this very moment)?

Nokia/MS can pay developers to upgrade/develop App. Let us assume that it can be done with a cost of $100 US for converting(ie. recompile the app, QC, update the user help/guide, delivery setup) an existing App [other professional developers can throw in some realistic man-hours here]. So the total bill for converting the 100k App base(as suggested in your other posts) would be costing $100,000,000. Does Nokia has this kind of money to do so now? By the way, if it would really costing only $100,000,000 to migrate the App base to WP8, MS would have done that already.

Furthermore, I don't believe that Nokia gets a percentage on App sale directly? So, the impact of WPx App to Nokia would be secondary. How long can Nokia wait unit the WPx App are so hot(and must have) that joe/jane(ie. regular people on the street) would buy a WP8 device so that they can run the said hot App?

I have no desire to see Nokia to fail. Many more lives/families would be affected if the Nokia goes down -- and that is really the sad part. Unfortunately, IMHO, the current leadership of Nokia has really painted the company(well at least the mobile business) to a dead corner and there is little hope of getting out of it.

You have a pair of rosy-color glasses on and mine pair is clear with a tint of blue.
 
SamGan is offline SamGan
07-20-2012 , 10:32 AM
Posts: 640 | Thanked: 632 times | Joined on Oct 2011
#1929
You know why NOK went up yesterday and down today? Simple, yesterday punters were buying in the expectation that Elop will be sacked. When it is clear this isn't going to happen, the price just fell back down. Expect NYSE:NOK to reach $1.50 next week.
 
Cue is offline Cue
07-20-2012 , 10:36 AM
Posts: 840 | Thanked: 816 times | Joined on Nov 2009
#1930
Originally Posted by specc View Post
Of course. 100k apps just popped up out of nowhere. Not a single person wrote those.

What exactly IS your point? Hard to admit you are wrong?
Lets not get childish now. I didn't say "there are no apps, lol" but you are misinformed if you think developers are pouring in to develop for WP7. A lot of the popular apps are paid for because the install base is NOT an incentive for development. The install base is far too small.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-57...ws-phone-apps/
 
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