One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

This is sort of a personal observation, but I was talking with a local cell phone sales company and commented on the fact that I tend to keep a phone for 5 years or more. She said I was the exception, since most people apparently change phones every 14 months. Anyone know if this is true? And if it is, won't that negatively affect any positive changes that we've been pushing for in the cellular industry, or would something like that actually improve it?

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

Cellphone turnover correlates with attention-spans.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

Cell Phone turnover correlates with cell phone suck. Seriously the only cell phone I have ever REALLY liked was the n-gage qd, and that was only because I didn't really use the net that much, and I played a lot of games, and Pathway to Glory was awesome. Since then, EVERY single cell phone I've owned, including the iPhone, has been total ****.

I think our cell phone rates won't improve because the CEO's at the top of these companies are money grubbing idiots. When a CEO doesn't have a passion for their business, their business tends to suck. When businesses suck, they tend to go bankrupt, UNLESS they are an exceptionally large business in which case the government passes all sorts of laws that allow them to stay in business by being anticompetitive.

To be fair, the whole "telecommunications" industry is in a state of disarray right now, because the line between phone and television is blurring, as they should.

When companies discover they can simply take all these devices, whether they are TVs, modems, computers, or cell phones, and just network them all via an IP network and provide all their services via IP, then the transition will be complete and real pricing change may occur. Until then, the CEOs of these companies, who are clearly outclassed and don't understand what they are facing because they are all idiots with no vision, are going to be doing the only thing they know how to do: raise prices and crack down on innovation.

As long as we keep kicking and screaming and fighting and cheating the system even to the point of music/movie piracy (which I really don't support, but sometimes the only way to beat someone is to be uncivilized and unethical and declare war) then eventually we WILL win.

There is nothing that pisses me off more than idiots. Just my luck that most of the world is ******ed.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

Lol... TV over IP... that's a joke right? Even VoIP is a joke. There will be a singularity at one point where all of this will merge but even then it will be short lived.

IP is not the be-all end-all protocol. Though watching something on the size(and encoded for let's say doubl that size) of a phone screen would certainly look great compared to watching it on a huge screen(and encoded for the huge screen).

I'll keep my copper for TV thank you very much :)

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

I'm daydreaming about junking my cell phone and just using email from my Kindle. Or maybe going back to a Tracfone; that costs about $100 a year. I don't see why cell phones are so important; they are critical only when your car breaks down or when you are trying to find a house or store.

I bet that an analysis of people's cell phone usage shows that they pay for much more than they actually use.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

I think that's a positive indicator, actually.

If the average customer upgrades their phone every 14 months, that means they will have a fairly recent model with (increasing) number of features that depends on good IP service. This clearly indicates the direction of demand and telco companies will be making appropriate investments to support this customer behavior (bigger bandwidth in the near future) that should alleviate technical bottlenecks and lower the telco's costs, which in turn makes it possible for them to offer better service to the customers.

As with any other products (pc, phones, shoes, etc), usually the price stays about the same, but the features\material\capacity increases. So things become 'cheaper' (per unit) in that sense.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

Well I think you mean you get 'more' for the same cost. The thing we need to remember that with every new 'feature' the network has another opportunity to sell additional services ontop of that hardware.

It would be interesting to see some stats on how the price per minute/per kb/per sms/per mms etc. has changed in different markets over time. that is a good way to understand what is happening.

My guess that we will see that voice-minutes are being commoditized and less "valuable" to the network provider.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

Lower unit prices = $9.99 today may get you 3.5Mbps service with 2GB monthly quota, and maybe in a year or two it'll get you 7Mbps service with 5GB monthly quota.

Just divide what you're paying with what you're getting, you'll end up with the unit prices.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

I have several friends -- all female, all college graduates, in fact all smart in their (non-techy) way -- that seemed not to know the "problem" with their cellphones was that its battery needed to be replaced. I think they didn't even know it could be. They had inexpensive telco-subsidised phones. I think people like that change phones a lot.

If you add to that the number of people who "change" phones because they lose them, I bet you go a long way toward accounting for that "every 14 months."

My guess is that pricey smartphones aren't replaced as often.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

In Switzerland, some carriers have started to offer reduced monthly rates if you don't need a new phone.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

The only reason I have ever changed a cellphone (since I bought my first one in 1997 or so) is because the battery failed. I have bought replacement batteries several times, they have all without exception been as bad as the original one, and thus forced me to get a new phone instead.

I believe this is what the phone makers want, and that's the main reason for them to constantly changing the battery form factor: They're never producing new batteries, so anything you can buy for your phone is as old as the phone itself, thus, being Li-Ion or Li-Poly batteries, the shelf life and the non-optimal storage (some hot shop wall for years) makes sure that replacement batteries are useless. (And expensive. Did I mention expensive?)

Despite this, I have still managed to hold on to a phone for some three years or more. If it wasn't for the battery issue my current phone would still have been an old, but small, easy, nice, semi-water-proof Nokia phone. Instead I was forced to get a new one, so I bought a S-E one from work.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

My 5110 lasted 6 years and even after that had a week worth of idle time. Of course back then it was still using NiMH. But a replacament Li-Ion nokia original my mom bought worked without a problem. The cheap knock-off lasted ~6 months :)

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

Dang. The only time I've seen standby times like that is when I've gone to Los Angeles for conferences. The rest of the time, I'm impressed when my phone manages to idle for eighteen hours.

My next phone change will likely be forced by the shutdown of the network upon which my current phone runs.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

Let me guess... Sprint?

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

Worse, a Sprint subsidiary.

The eighteen hour max standby time seems constant across networks though. I've had it with a Nokia analogue phone on CellularOne AT&T, with an LG phone on Verizon, and with a Motorola iDEN phone. Take them to LA though, and suddenly they last a week or more.

I enjoy living in the country and working in a converted coal bunker, but mobile phones don't.

To keep somewhat on topic: I don't change phones often. The Nokia analogue was actually my wife's phone. The LG on Verizon was my own first mobile phone in 2001. ($250 on a 1 year contract!) I then stopped carrying a phone for several years before getting my second (and current) phone.

I am considering jumping back to Verizon (prepaid this time) for better tethering.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

quote: I bet that an analysis of people's cell phone usage shows that they pay for much more than they actually use.
geneven: studies have indeed shown that, and the fact that therefore the average cellphone minute costs users about 30cents.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

Uh, my VoIP I've been using for around 5$ a month for the past 2 years has been working great and I can even use it from anywhere!
It definitely isn't a joke :-)
(And much much better than the 30$ my monopolistic telco charges for copper!)

As for TV, well everything is there to make it work, ever tried Democracy Player or some such?

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

I'll go with Jay's observation, although I am also an exception. I hang onto stuff.

Manufacturers want you to replace your phone up to twice a year. Cell service providers are good with that, as new phones require less servicing and drive constantly renewed interest.

So there you have it in a nutshell.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

I've still got the the same cell phone that I got for free back in 2004. Before that, I had that phone since 1999. :P In my WHOLE lifetime, I've only ever had three cell phones. :P

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

And, also, in fairness to manufacturers, its hard to keep up enthusiasm for your older products when all your efforts are going to creating NEW phones that you're enthusiastic about.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

This will be my first time actually buying a phone, I've always just used "free" cellphones that come with a plan. Most of the time my cellphones have lasted years. I''ve only replaced them every 4-5 years and that's because the design has changed so much. For example, my previous cell phone was really thick and blocky.

@mmurfin87, and it's the only way to continue to make money. Sadly you can't just stop and continue to sell that product forever. =P

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

Youtube works, right? :) it really depends per country (and even region). In NL you can get low-quality TV over IP for free (PDTV). This goes with about 800 kB/sec. With a subscription you can get also TV over IP which is higher quality and includes the commercial broadcasters. While with VoIP latency matters because you have direct interaction this is not the case with TV over IP. So the fact there is latency and some buffering does not matter much. Yes, if you sit in your living room and want to see a different channel you expect instant reply. Well, if you have ADSL2 with TV over IP the modem will have some traffic shaping to prioritize just like it does with SIP. An alternative could be DVB, but there you have some lag due to latency and buffering as well. Basically, as long as you have enough data limit or FUP to work with it works. Although it'll also eat your battery power for breakfast. Actually, Apple refused to carry the application which allows one to see PDTV using a iPhone on T-Mobile NL 3G network whereas that application is available on all other platforms. Outcry. T-Mobile NL then spoke with Apple to allow the application, stating their network has the capacity to deal with the data. Apple listened. Heck my provider Vodafone NL actually suggests this software when I go to their mobile homepage. With LTE TV over IP will be even more fun because LTE supports multicasting. Except if everyone wants to see different Youtube videos on different times; then multicasting isn't going to help.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

I think here most people get a voice/data contract for 1 or 2 years together with a phone. When that contract is over they do the same.

However it has to be noted a 'phone' is much more than a 'phone'. It is also an address book, agenda, camera, IM client, and heck so much more these days. It is a heavily used device, and a very personal device.

The mobile industry is also in a fast pace of development. And there is often no soft- or hardware backwards compatibility, or new trends such as GPS, touchscreen, accelerometer, digital compass, good camera, HSPA, better raw performance require a hardware upgrade.

I have to say I find the battery degradation argument also reasonable.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

ROFL!!
The only reason I ever change is because the darn PHONE ITSELF died. I've owned my last two cell phones for the better part of 5 years each, and am only now upgrading again because the current one is literally falling apart. lol.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

i guess i've been lucky so far; i've never owned a cellphone. my landline and my n810 with wifi where i can find it are usually more connectivity than i really need.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

I guess one reason is that in NYC there is ample free wifi and hence you can use wifi for your calls.
But sadly the rest of the US is not THAT connected. And the MuniWifi dream ... is just that now.
So for us in the not so wifi connected parts - we need a cell to make calls - and even connect our NIT to communicate.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

Municipal Wifi is dead because every cellular and bandwidth provider in the US doesn't want it to exist at all for any reason period. They see it as competition, even though they stand to make huge amounts of cash from the connection fees. They're going to make mad money anyways regardless who provides the connection. The only difference is, Municipal Wifi will expose the lies and dishonesty of the big providers, and they don't want that. :p

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

yes indeed. verizon (or whatever they're calling themselves this moment) has spent tons of money to prevent it from happening in NYC.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

You think that is air you're breathing :confused:

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

The n900 will also be the first phone i actually pay for (and a lot!) and will be my 4th phone...

I'm right now using a Nokia 6020 that is 4-5 years old and still work quite well :)

I wonder if Apple will get slapped (hopefully hard) in the face if the net neutrality rules proposed by the FCC become laws. What they are doing is selecting what traffic can go where in a very fascist way!

Data is data, leave us alone! :-)

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

@R-R: While I agree that Apple discriminates against programs that competes with their offerings (this wall is crumbling down too when they let Spotify (spotify.com) sells their app in the AppStore), I think the ultimate 'guardian' against VOIP apps are the telco carriers. Apple would be the beneficiary if full-fledged VOIP apps are available on their platform.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

The new phone every 14 months stat made me think about my phone usage.

In 8 years, I've gone through 8 phones - though some have lasted 3-4 years & for a while I had a personal and business phone at the same time. I only choose to upgrade once (my personal phone) & the rest (the business phones) were either replaced because they broke (warranty or non-warranty), I changed companies or I was "blessed" with a Blackberry.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

i know it's not. you should hear me cough! on the subject at hand - i remember 15 years ago when landline calls to or from europe were 35 cents a minute. they're now down to 1-2 cents. (if you take inflation into account that drop is much greater than it seems.) i think that in a few years the same will happen with cellphone call minutes and they'll try to boost revenue with other services.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

They'll try to boost revenue with other services? My gawds, have you seen the highway robbery that's taking place for text messages, sms and data!? I think they've already found their alternative revenue stream. Personally, I'd love to see every single company go to a $15-$25 unlimited talk/voice plan, and a $40-$50 unlimited everything plan (data, text, sms, etc). No limits of minutes, data, etc. The only limits I can see needing to be imposed would be throttling on super heavy internet users (If you're using more than 250gb a month on 3g/4g, you definitely need to be throttled to be fair to the other users). Otherwise, I can't see any reason why they should continue the current pricing plan. They've got the penetration, and the infrastructure. The next step should be to try and get the most customers with the best network and plans. And yet ever single cellular company is out to totally screw over everyone they can in the most creative and cruel ways possible. It drives me nuts.

Re: One likely reason why our cell rates will never improve.
 

Buying lottery tickets is less of a rip-off than the thievery of SMS/text charges. What a cash cow!!!

We'd all like to see that. Not gonna happen.

Because they can. See above about SMS/text charges...

Don't ya just love the smell of capitalism in the morning?

All that said, looks clear to me that as was said earlier, eventually all our communications will converge into IP 'net services. Everything, phone, data, TV. It will be a long time, but it will happen. And mostly wireless 'cause wireless is much cheaper to build out than fiber-optic cable to individual homes. Look at all the people who now have cellphones but never had access to land lines. Plus, it's well, wireless with all the mobility advantages that includes. Cable companies may have it tough, we'll see what they can do to compete.

The struggle now and for the foreseeable future is for control of wireless communications bandwidth and the main fiber trunk lines that connect it all together. The prices we'll pay later will be determined by the winners. Those winners will have heavy investments to pay off and stockowners to satisfy.

Some prices may come down, like for instance voice minutes have from competition and commodization. But other services (like SMS) will still be overpriced to make up the difference. IOW, I don't expect my total communications bill (TV + phone + data services, etc.) to get a major reduction for a long long time.