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Re: Nokia shares dive after sales warning

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobh (Post 1024644)

Tiny companies? 120,000 employees is not tiny. You have never heard of them, but that is because they failed. They were both well-known "blue chip" companies at the time. They didn't see the PC revolution coming and were destroyed by it.

I don't actually think MS as a company will fail anytime soon. They do have their desktop monopoly and Office cash-cow. However, other than the XBox, they don't have a very good track record of getting into new markets. So it is entierly plausible that WP7 won't go anywhere.

In the long run, there is a danger for MS. The world is changing again, maybe as much as it did when the PC came along. The track record of technology companies across a paradigm shift is not a good one. At best they seem to "do an IBM", which is to say they remain large and profitable but no longer lead the market. A lot of signs point to MS heading down that path.

I think WP7 and Windows 8 are their shot at remaining relevant. If they fail they will continue to exist but will no longer dominate the industry the way they have for the last 20 years. If they succeed, it will be one for the history books.

You are only looking at a tiny fraction of the industrialized economy. Another example that proves the opposite is - well Nokia. We have Samsung, we have Sony and Ericsson (in all their different variants), Siemens, LG, and Apple, just to mention a few, and of course BMW, VW, Boeing etc etc. There is no law of nature or statistics to prove your point. All there is, is people doing their best, sometime you succeed, sometimes you don't.

Besides, MS has done great success with Windows CE in billions of devices, and WP is only the last and most advanced version of that OS.

Re: Nokia shares dive after sales warning

Quote:

Originally Posted by ericsson (Post 1024666)

You are only looking at a tiny fraction of the industrialized economt. Another example that proves the opposite is - well Nokia. We have Samsung, we have Sony and Ericsson (in all their different variants), Siemens, LG, and Apple, just to mention a few, and of course BMW, VW, Boeing etc etc.

I don't have the faintest idea what you are trying to say. It sounds as if you think that sucessful companies will always be sucessful. History is littered with counter-examples, particularly in IT.

Quote:

Besides, MS has done great success with Windows CE in billions of devices, and WP is only the last and most advanced version of that OS.

Oh, yeah, WINCE was a huge...um...something. But it wasn't much of a success. I would be surprised if they sell even 10 million WINCE devices per year now, in a market of billions.

I work in the embedded systems field and CE is nothing but a bad joke. Linux and VxWorks are kicking their ***. Nobody cares anymore. And now it is virtually abandoned by MS. A perfect example of MS having a hard time with new markets.

Re: Nokia shares dive after sales warning

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScourgeV (Post 1024327)

I don't understand a lot about the market so I'll ask a simple yes or no question. Should I buy Nokia stock right now? (I know there are all kinds of things involved but I figured I'd ask anyway)

I would say no, not now.

If Elop's 'tell people what we're selling now is ****, start selling Windows Phones eventually' strategy is a success, stocks will start rising when investors start to believe this. That will not happen until Nokia has something to show with potential, which they will not do any time soon.

However, if the 'tell people what we're selling now is ****, start selling Windows Phones eventually' strategy is a failure, stocks will not start rising until investors start to believe in the next administration and strategy. That will not happen until a new administration and strategy is presented, which will not happen until a new administration and strategy is conceited. So, not any time soon.

Oh, and Nokia is facing a credit problem already.

It appears to me that the chances of short and long upturns are much slimmer than the chances for continued price fall.

Re: Nokia shares dive after sales warning

Quote:

Originally Posted by ericsson (Post 1024660)

Rather naive than a sorry pessimistic whiner :D

About 1% of Nokias shares are actually in the wild. The rest of the shares are owned by long term investors that have one single goal in life, and that is to see Nokia thrive, and they are loaded with money. Nokia is very similar to VW group, virtually indestructible.

Besides your juvenile pee and pants wording, I am honestly interested where you got the number of "1% of shares in the wild" from. Do you imply that 99% of Nokia's shares are in the hands of long term investors not willing to sell shares until the company thrives again?

I consider myself pretty savvy in finding relevant data, but I never came across this information. Do you have a source or a link to substantiate this information?

Re: Nokia shares dive after sales warning

Quote:

Originally Posted by cBeam (Post 1024687)

http://www.youcannotlinktofantasiesi...ialadvice.html

;)

Re: Nokia shares dive after sales warning

Quote:

Originally Posted by lohner (Post 1024640)

(-1) * (-1) = 1

just kidding...

What I see are two imaginary strategies... i * i = -1. :)

Re: Nokia shares dive after sales warning

Quote:

Originally Posted by ScourgeV (Post 1024327)

I don't understand a lot about the market so I'll ask a simple yes or no question. Should I buy Nokia stock right now? (I know there are all kinds of things involved but I figured I'd ask anyway)

if you have to ask - then dont touch it

first rule of trading/investment - have your own thesis

if you dont have a thesis, stay the fvck OUT

the answer to your question is inherently complex - anyone who just says "long" or "short" without knowing your risk tolerance, time frame, intended position size etc is just giving you bad advice without knowing your circumstances

Re: Nokia shares dive after sales warning

I would like to say its refreshing to have a "champion" of "satan" here

balances out the religions here lolz

still an atheist - and will stay that way hah

Re: Nokia shares dive after sales warning

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobh (Post 1024673)

I don't have the faintest idea what you are trying to say

Then you should learn to read

Quote:

There is no law of nature or statistics to prove your point. All there is, is people doing their best, sometime you succeed, sometimes you don't.

That poorly organized companies that grow up like mushrooms, surfing on some "new" wave of techhnologies, sooner o later fals down when that wave starts loosing its momentuma, is nothing new, and certainly not more typical in the IT sector than in any other sector.

You may argue that MS and Nokia both are mushrooms, but the point is that Nokia is the archeotypical example of the opposite. MS have shown by now that they will survive. Another point is that neither MS or Nokia need to revolutionize anything. They only need to do what they are good at.

Re: Nokia shares dive after sales warning

Dunno where to put this, probably here is the place:
http://communities-dominate.blogs.co...stephen-e.html