even without digging much, one can't help feeling Mr. Elop maybe isn't to (mis-)quote a post on an other (related) thread "the sharpest knife in the cabinet"... ()
I've voted number 4, because he will keep his job at least for a year, no matter how harmful his moves are. Any normal company would show him the door after all the s*** he made. The fact that they didn't suggests there is missing part of the puzzle.
Personally, no matter what the missing part is, the the end results will be the same.
I voted for the last option because so far its the most accurate.
Kicking Elop out would be like telling the investors; hey we are heading to a waterfall in a leakey boat while surrounded by sharks! And guess what we just threw out the other paddle.