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2007-09-30
, 18:38
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Posts: 1,540 |
Thanked: 1,045 times |
Joined on Feb 2007
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#12
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Originally Posted by YoDude
Sorry, I should have made it clearer I'm talking here about the general worldwide phone market, which America is a relatively small and ever-shrinking fraction of (Europe's share is also a shrinking fraction). Phones are far, far more global than iPods or any other type of electronic device. Apple hasn't really started global iPhone roll-out, which is why I'm being so cautious about calling it a "mainstream" device. I'm not saying it won't be, just that it's way too early to tell yet.
However...
Us geeks, power users, forward thinkers, et al. comprise maybe only 10% of the total market. Although that total market is splintered all to hell the 90% that isn't is where Apple has set their sites.
These 90% may look to the 10% for insight but Apple negated any ability for the 10% to steer their target market by providing interface features that the geeks didn't even imagine were useful.
Don't forget that those 90% are more than likely locked into 2 year commitments with their service providers. Those commitments for a good many began 2 years ago during the holiday season when they all "had to have" Motorola's Razor.
If Apple is serious about market share (which they don't have to be, profits matter more than market share), it's Asia where all the phone action is, with China and India already the two biggest markets and growing all the time. Apple might not want market share though, Apple aren't known for no-frills low-cost low-profit products, which is where most phone sales come from.
On the other hand, just because a device has a small market share doesn't stop it being influential. The Xerox PARC designers of the first graphic interfaces sold hardly any actual computers, but their interface was the basis for Apple's Macintosh interface, and all the window-and-mouse interfaces after that.
If other companies' designers look at a device and say "oh I like that particular feature", they're very likely to try and incorporate something like it in their own devices, so influence can spread through a market even without significant sales. That's not so great for the influential device's manufacturers if they don't make any money from influence (at least PARC got some free Apple shares), but it's great for consumers because it means they get the best features from a wide range of competing manufacturers.
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2007-09-30
, 18:41
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Posts: 124 |
Thanked: 34 times |
Joined on Mar 2007
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#13
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Originally Posted by krisse
But I don't think we need to needlessly splinter the market with useless variations. Not that a physical keyboard is a useless variation - but it might be.
I don't think we need to have just one style of device. As long as they're all the same platform there's potential for many different sizes and form factors to suit different people's tastes and needs. This would be the best way to expand support for the platform.
Originally Posted by krisse
My argument about the iPhone isn't really about how many units it's sold, or about the platform software. It's more about the people who bought one. There are some real geeks who bought it, but there are just as many on the flip side, who bought it for it's nice integration, good screen, and usability, so they don't HAVE to worry about an overly complicated device.
Don't forget, the iPhone isn't exactly mainstream, at least not yet. 1 million sales in a few months is absolutely nothing by phone standards,
The touch interface and the onscreen keyboard are the most uncontestedly praised features on the iPhone.
Originally Posted by krisse
(disclaimer: I'm no Apple fan.) You could have made the exact same argument about tastes and appeal about the MP3 player market a couple years ago. And to all appearances, you would have been right. Besides - Apple is a computer company - and they haven't always done so well at that. So what makes you think they can make a good MP3 player?
Nokia alone sells 1 million every single day and they're only a third of the market. I think the iPhone will sell well compared to iPods, but in its current form it will never be more than a niche of the overall phone market, because there is no way for a single device to appeal to the majority of the market. Personal tastes are too diverse, there can't be a perfect phone in the same way there can't be a perfect film or a perfect book.
And yet they took the market by storm, making them the company to imitate.
I'm not saying that that's what Apple's doing with the iPhone - I already clarified what specific aspects of the iPhone I was referring to when I cited it as an example.
But I do think that expending more effort into a better interface would give more long-term benefit than tacking on a keyboard. Polish the touch interface - make it really smooth and reactive. Polish the onscreen keyboard.
Originally Posted by krisse
And yet, they haven't. In fact, it's simply not worth their while to support even the 770, so what makes it worth it to support two or three models each year?
There's nothing to stop Nokia bringing out two or three tablet models a year in parallel, just as they bring out a dozen similarly-specced smartphone models every year. The recently announced E51 smartphone is a candybar shape and absolutely tiny, just 61cc, whereas the also recently announced N95 8GB is a slider and much bigger, but they both run exactly the same S60 3.1 software platform at about the same speed.
Granted minor variations that have no great impact on the software like the addition of a hardware keyboard represent an order of magnitude less extra effort to support, but I think the areas that people have been most requesting for improvement are in the core hardware.
What were the biggest disappointments with the 770? Limited memory, a bit slow, and improved add-on storage.
What did they improve in the N800? More memory, faster processor, and two SD slots. What were the biggest disappointments in the N800? The crippled video bandwidth and the completely unused 3d accelerator.
It would seem, in my mind at least, that they should get a rock solid core hardware platform before they branch out too much with variations. I think that would represent the introduction of a mainstream-ready platform. Because as I said earlier, integrating a hardware keyboard, or GPS, or WiMax represent otherwise minor variations on the core hardware platform.
Originally Posted by krisee
The Intel MIDs, along with a few other manufacturers.
On top of all that, aren't we expecting some non-Nokia Maemo devices to appear at some point?
I'm not putting a whole lot of faith in Intel's MIDs. Mostly just because it's not a part of Intel's core business. The first thing that happens in the reorg after a slump is spin off anything that's not a core part of their business into it's own company.
In fact, usually when Intel demo's things like this, it's mostly just to generate interest in the platform, which Intel then tries to sell other companies on. And I just don't see an Asus MID being able to compete well with the devices that Nokia is putting out.
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2007-10-15
, 23:44
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Posts: 155 |
Thanked: 10 times |
Joined on Nov 2005
@ central georgia, usa
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#14
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I'm a pre-order on the 770 and have skipped the 800.
Now I'm an early adopter of the N95-3. (That sounds better than technically obsessed.)((Hey, my laptop is 5.5 years old....))
S60 is banging on that (computer that also makes) phone (calls) but it does lack compared to the backup on the 770. The backup to PC from the phone doesn't save settings. (Ma'am, how many times am I gonna have to say "Just the Data?")
The 770 (out if it's case) is nearly perfect in size and screen use. If it could make calls, I'd have no trouble using it exclusively.
Stuff has got to be getting smaller which means to me you can put more in...
I read a review that struck. With external components like a BT keyboard and external monitor, the phone isn't just a phone. It has the potential to be your PC. The question becomes: "What compromises are necessary when I use my PC as a mobile?"
A blazing fast 770 (with acres of storage and the ability to phone home) wouldn't throw much away from a compromise standpoint.
If we're really believing some VR claims, voice control wouldn't be out of the question.
Now I'm an early adopter of the N95-3. (That sounds better than technically obsessed.)((Hey, my laptop is 5.5 years old....))
S60 is banging on that (computer that also makes) phone (calls) but it does lack compared to the backup on the 770. The backup to PC from the phone doesn't save settings. (Ma'am, how many times am I gonna have to say "Just the Data?")
The 770 (out if it's case) is nearly perfect in size and screen use. If it could make calls, I'd have no trouble using it exclusively.
Stuff has got to be getting smaller which means to me you can put more in...
I read a review that struck. With external components like a BT keyboard and external monitor, the phone isn't just a phone. It has the potential to be your PC. The question becomes: "What compromises are necessary when I use my PC as a mobile?"
A blazing fast 770 (with acres of storage and the ability to phone home) wouldn't throw much away from a compromise standpoint.
If we're really believing some VR claims, voice control wouldn't be out of the question.
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2007-10-16
, 00:15
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Posts: 186 |
Thanked: 5 times |
Joined on Feb 2007
@ Canada
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#15
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Dont get me wrong, a slider keyboard would be a useful addition, but doesnt it seem like a step back to uber geek?
I cant see the n810 having a hardware keyboard and retaining the same slim form factor as the n800. It altogether ruin the portability of the device and not to mention complicate it.
I agree with Datapath, I think they should invest on a better touch screen technology and polish their virtual keyboard.
I cant see the n810 having a hardware keyboard and retaining the same slim form factor as the n800. It altogether ruin the portability of the device and not to mention complicate it.
I agree with Datapath, I think they should invest on a better touch screen technology and polish their virtual keyboard.
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2007-10-16
, 03:44
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Posts: 1,878 |
Thanked: 646 times |
Joined on Sep 2007
@ San Jose, CA
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#16
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Originally Posted by YoDude
Good Job Dude!
Nice!
I smell useful in house or partnered apps coming.
I just hope that "farther from the hacker market" doesn't include attitude and open-API. As in: I don't want to see something that is less hacker friendly (like the iPhone). More user polished, yes. Less power-user mod-able, no.
And, yeah, I'm hoping to see a solid/polished offering for the included apps, too :-)
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2007-10-16
, 03:47
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Posts: 1,878 |
Thanked: 646 times |
Joined on Sep 2007
@ San Jose, CA
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#17
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Originally Posted by Nik1
I don't think you need to dramatically increase the thickness to add a keyboard. I think you just have to make the entire device as thick as the N800's bulge. And I don't think that's too thick.
Dont get me wrong, a slider keyboard would be a useful addition, but doesnt it seem like a step back to uber geek?
I cant see the n810 having a hardware keyboard and retaining the same slim form factor as the n800. It altogether ruin the portability of the device and not to mention complicate it.
I agree with Datapath, I think they should invest on a better touch screen technology and polish their virtual keyboard.
If they're going to do a hardware keyboard, then I hope they've had enough foresight to do it like the HTC Shift, and/or the AT&T Tilt. Especially if you can "tilt" without sliding (so that the lower half can also act like a stand).
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2007-10-16
, 03:55
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Posts: 1,878 |
Thanked: 646 times |
Joined on Sep 2007
@ San Jose, CA
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#18
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Originally Posted by putkowski
A blazing fast 770 (with acres of storage and the ability to phone home) wouldn't throw much away from a compromise standpoint.
a) you don't need blazing fast CPU in order to replace a PC. Most of the CPU on a current PC is wasted by inefficient bloatware (in the OS, in the apps, etc.), and only really comes in to play for big number crunching and high end game playing. Get a work PC specifically for the big number crunching. Get a home PC specifically for high end game playing. Have the ability to remotely display your IT to either of them. Then your IT can be the common environment that you use for everything else.
b) you don't need acres of storage in the IT. Get a Seagate D.A.V.E and/or Agere BlueOnyx. Put it in your pocket. Store all of your files on it. Access those files from your IT via bluetooth. Devices should specialize: ITs should be for user presentation, DAVE/BlueOnyx type devices for significant storage, certain handsets for audio/video/picture taking (ie. "data collection devices"), and another little box to sit in your pocket and be the wireless gateway to the internet. The phone "handset" can be software on the IT and/or audio/video/picture device.
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2007-10-16
, 04:11
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Posts: 1,878 |
Thanked: 646 times |
Joined on Sep 2007
@ San Jose, CA
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#19
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Originally Posted by DataPath
On the one hand, the N800's finger keyboard does grow on me over time. But, you can't see the full screen while using it. The stylus keyboard is good for accuracy and being able to see the app while you type, but not not speed. A hardware keyboard gets you the best of all of those.
Isn't the iPhone a good argument that a hardware keyboard isn't necessary for a mainstream device? I would have thought that the N800's soft keyboard spoke for itself, but apparently not.
On the second hand, the iPhone's on screen keyboard sucks a*s. Some people may love it. I hated it. I wouldn't want to try to get uber-fast with it, nor use it for ssh. And I know I'm not alone in finding the iPhone's keyboard to be insufficient, wishing they had support for bluetooth keyboards. (I wished that right up until I finally decided to not go that direction, and get an N800 instead).
What I think is really lacking about the N800 on the "finger interface" side of things is, and where the iPhone does get it right: too much reliance on the stylus. Get better about being able to use your fingers for everything. Don't just make it a "detect if they used stylus or finger on the fly" issue. Offer the user a control panel that says "always assume I'm using my fat fingers" instead of generally assuming they're using a stylus and trying to detect (with a low degree of accuracy) when they've used their finger. Make sure every menu can be realized as a finger menu (not just the application launcher). Make sure every application can do finger scrolling (not just the web browser). Only require the stylus for really high accuracy applications (ex: sketch when using a fine brust stroke).
I'd suggest 3 settings: "assume fingers", "assume stylus", "dynamically detect" (the current mechanism). If you've got "assume fingers", then the keyboard that pops up with always be the finger keyboard, etc. If you've got "assume stylus", then the keyboard that pops up will always be the stylus keyboard. Oh, and, on the keyboard menu, don't just say "keyboard vs handwriting". Say "full screen keyboard, stylus keyboard, handwriting", so you can easily switch to the other when the setting says otherwise. Last, for this paragraph, make the "assume fingers/assume stylus/dynamically detect" control panel for a global default, but also have it be a common setting for each application individually. For lots of things, I'll want the default to be the default (which for me will be the finger keyboard), but for VNC and sketch, I'll want the default to be the stylus (until there's a hardware keyboard).
Oh, and, make sure the screen stands up to fingernails. I think some us are using those instead of the stylus ;-)
Us geeks, power users, forward thinkers, et al. comprise maybe only 10% of the total market. Although that total market is splintered all to hell the 90% that isn't is where Apple has set their sites.
These 90% may look to the 10% for insight but Apple negated any ability for the 10% to steer their target market by providing interface features that the geeks didn't even imagine were useful.
Don't forget that those 90% are more than likely locked into 2 year commitments with their service providers. Those commitments for a good many began 2 years ago during the holiday season when they all "had to have" Motorola's Razor.
Apples timing was perfect. Next year would be to late (or to early) but the following year their will be another opportunity to grab market share.