I see three types of device on my daily commute into London Bridge train station and around the City of London. I've listed them below in descending order of frequency along with my personal categorisation of the owners:

1. iPods, and I don't mean generic mp3 players, I mean genuine Apple iPods (owned by everyone below 50, male and female, postroom boy to CEO, universal appeal)
2. Blackberrys (owned/used by execs and middle management)
3. Smartphones inc. Win mobile devices (owned by 25-35 year old males in junior technical roles that don't warrant a Blackberry)

I see Windows Mobile devices very rarely - Blackberrys probably outnumber them 10:1, or even more. iPods are everywhere, last night on my way home I had people to my left, right and in front of me simultaneously scrolling through tracks on their flipping iPods! Of course, I was probably the only person on the entire train with a Nokia Internet Tablet!

Microsoft are in la-la land if they think they are the only company with "the werewithall" to dominate mobile computing. Perhaps the landscape is different in the US, but in the UK Microsoft are nowhere as RIM and their Blackberrys seem to have cleaned up. Perhaps Microsoft can stage a comeback in the Enterprise space but certainly I don't see how their devices can appeal to the ordinary consumer when their software is so crap - Pocket IE, anyone?

RIM have the enterprise/push-email space sewn up, Apple have the consumer space pretty much to themselves... Microsoft won't disappear and will keep pluging away in the mobile computing space but so far they seem to be in decline. It seems that Microsoft face some of the same challenges that Nokia will face in the near future - how to gain ground on the incumbant mobile computing defacto market leaders (RIM and Apple).

Nokia's 770/N800/N810's strength is open source philosophy. They should focus on ease of application development, especially now that Apple is planning to release an SDK for the iPhone/iPod touch.

Maybe a Ruby-based environment would be a great start. Python is ready, but I think that's not enough. You might sometimes have an idea but don't want to spend a day installing scratchbox, reading tutorials, learning new frameworks and building packages.

Application development should be a snap for developers and even non-developers.

This way, users have freedom to decide what they use that piece of hardware to. That's the main difference with products like iPhone, where other companies decide for you.

Milhouse is in the UK.

But yeah, in general US citizens have a distorted view of Apple's market share. Globally it's miniscule. Even in the US computer market they just breached 8% and that's pretty sad given their alleged superiority and longtime presence. Even iPhones, despite their magnificent launch, take up less than 1% of the US phone market based on the last stats I saw. So they dominate in music players, and even then mainly in the US. That is the status of the much-vaunted Apple.

Don't get me wrong: Apple does many things right and they have momentum and cool designs on their side. But how much of the consumer worship is based on them being new to certain segments, and how much can actually be sustained? THAT is the question yet to be answered. Once Sony owned the portable media player with the Walkman; Apple beat them at their own game. So who's to say Sandisk or some other challenger (even Microsoft??? ) won't do the same to Apple? This "the company I like can beat up the company you like" banter is rather silly given the mercurial nature of the business.

In my head, I picture this big web of manufacturers heading towards the same ultimate goal.

Intel with MID's trying to size down computers into a pocketable Internet / Multimedia device.

Apple with iPhones and iPods slowly growing into a pocket Internet / Multimedia device.

Nokia with a pocket Internet / Multimedia device, which is under-developed but may reach its potential as a pocket Internet / Multimedia device. (lol!)

The only one that seems to fall out of this web is Microsoft:

Microsoft with Windows Mobile, trying to avoid being a pocket Internet / Multimedia device, so as to slow the pace down until they can implement their own vision of how communication and the internet should be. (Silverlight, MSN, Rich Client Applications and OS's)

I imagine its to keep everyone tied into their suite of applications and OSes. Its possible they can pull this heresy off, due to their entrenchment in corporate environments.

It is my hope that the first 3 are successful so as to prevent a proprietary Microsoft world. Where companies like Nokia or Apple has to beg to have Silverlight ported to their platform.

Tex, you're comparing Nokia and their phone sales (all of their phones sales, which includes smartphones and non-smartphones) with the phone market share gained by Apple (in 3 months, in 1 region) and suggesting that according to your figures Nokia is doing a better job than Apple. While that may or may not be true (different companies selling different products with different business models, I'm not sure they're directly comparable) what I'm trying to compare here is mobile computing internet-enabled devices and as far as I'm concerned the number of non-smartphones sold by Nokia is irrelevant (it runs into the hundreds of millions - but so what, they're just phones).

Comparing Apple and the iPhone with Nokia on a purely phone basis, once Apple go global with the iPhone I wouldn't be surprised to discover that Apple begin to shift about the same number of iPhones in a year as Nokia sell N-Series devices, which isn't a bad start and undeniably will cause some concern at Nokia HQ.

However let's talk about mobile computing devices and not dumb phones or smart phones - this category covers Apple iPhone/Touch devices, Nokia Internet Tablets, Intel MIDs, Microsoft Windows Mobile PCs and even Archos thingamy bobs. Who is the daddy in this market? It's Apple - and they got there in the last 3 months, from a standing start!

So let's be clear here, phones are not relevant, even though the iPhone has built-in cellular capability, it's a useful side feature to the main mobile computing device. When (normal non-geeky) people want to buy a mobile computing device, what will they buy? A Nokia NIT? Or an Apple iPod or iPhone? Only uber-geeks will lust after the NIT, or the latest N95 supersmartphone. My commute to and from work confirms this _every day_.

In the mobile computing space, Nokia have an awful lot of ground to make up - not so much technically, although that is a concern, but more so winning the hearts and minds. We both know Nokia have no problems selling boatloads of dumb phones to people all over the world (well, apart from the USA...) but selling more complicated and more connected mobile devices such as the NIT became a lot more interesting and a lot harder for Nokia as soon as the iPhone (then Touch) appeared on the market.

It's not about phones anymore, it's about mobile computing. Nokia know this, which is why they don't call their high-end phones "phones" any more. They're mobile computers.

The problem as I see it with Microsoft is that they have their feet in two camps, the Enterprise camp and the Consumer camp, and the expectations and requirements of the two camps are very very different.

Windows Mobile doesn't appeal to the general public at the consumer level because it's stuffy looking due to Microsoft having to keep the Enterprise users happy.

Enterprise users on the other hand only really want mobile push email, and just as with the Internet, Microsoft didn't see that coming so now RIM dominate here. Plus, RIM devices are _really_ well designed for their target market, both physically and at the software level (I love the Pearl - the trackball is excellent).

In order for Microsoft to win at the consumer level, they're going to have to drastically overhaul the look & feel of the Windows Mobile OS and add lots of eye candy, sex it up, make it far more appealing to the consumer in a world of Apple iPhone/Touches. Of course, this strategy won't go down so well in the Enterprise space, so maybe Microsoft will have to offer two versions of the OS - one for the consumer and another for the Enterprise (themes may not be sufficient). And then there's application backward compatability - breaking that with the introduction of a new look & feel is a big no-no in the land of Microsoft.

I can't see Microsoft taking either option unless they really do have "the wherewithall" as Uncle Fester believes. And I'm still not sure how they can challenge RIM in the Enterprise... unless they just buy RIM. For cash.

Mil, I disagree. If people are going to make the grandiose statements they have concerning Apple's accomplishments, then I feel it's perfectly fair and legitimate to bring in the data that I have. On one specific point, you seem to be downplaying Nokia's smartphones, which have been increasingly gaining traction.

HOWEVER-- if any conversant wants to incorporate truly relevant context with the Apple trumpeting (as I have sought all along), then I'm right on board. Gladly.



EDIT: although I do find it amusing that you seem to be backpeddling now off of previous iPhone/N800 comparisons. Oh, and don't confuse your local observations with global reality... the way hardcore Apple fans have.

I'm not backpeddling on the iPhone/N800 comparisons, I've always compared them as mobile computing devices on which you can surf the web, that opinion hasn't changed. The iPhone and Touch are identical in this regard, even though the iPhone is also a phone - the phone feature is not relevant to me in the context of my comparison, just as Nokia having sold millions (billions) of phone-only dumb devices is not relevant to this discussion.

As far as I can see, the only real difference between the iPhone/Touch and the NITs is the philosophy of the respective manufacturers - (semi-)closed or (semi-)open, the NITs not being fully open until Nokia get their sh1t together with the OS, cut the corporate bullsh1t and shoot the lawyers.

I appreciate Nokia smartphones sell well (though nowhere near as well as their dumb phones), their enterprise models are very nice and the N95 is very popular (I'll be getting the 8GB version when it appears!) but I'm not sure I really see these as mobile computing devices in the same vein as the NITs or iPhone/Touch, perhaps because the screens are too small or they lack the required connectivity? The Nokia Smartphones seem to be phones first and foremost, with all other functions secondary. Perhaps Apple did a very clever thing with the iPhone by avoiding the addition of number keypad as they essentially delivered a mobile computing device that, oh yeah, it's a phone too.

Anyway, we can debate Nokias past glories selling zillions of dumb phones all day, or compare how many PowerPC's Apple have sold and how many Nokia haven't. I'm not an Apple fanboi, I don't own any Apple product except a now dead 3G iPod but what I do see, with my own eyes, is Apple mobile products in use all around me every day, in the real world being used by real, normal, people of all ages and sexes. The last time I saw a Nokia high-end smartphone was 3 months ago (N95 v1, in Plum, England vs. France rugby at Twickenham) and I honestly couldn't tell you the last time I saw someone other than myself with a Nokia Internet Tablet!

Apple have real mind share when it comes to their mobile devices, and it's this observation I find interesting.

Fair enough. In some areas we agree, in others we'll have to agree to disagree (I see the phone aspect as EXTREMLY relevant). That said, I'd rather do the back-and-forth on this subject with you than just about anyone else who's chimed in. At least you don't seem to suffer from Apple Fever.

And truth be told, it's very possible that Apple and Nokia will BOTH eventually wind up successful with the products in question. Remember, Apple's definition of success per device may be (and is apparently) very, very different from Nokia's... and both subject to change at an executive's whim.

Thanks for that - the feeling is reciprocated.

I think it's beyond any doubt that Apple are and will continue to be successful with their current mobile computing (I'm fed up typing iPhone/Touch!) strategy, and with kickbacks on the iPhone service/data plans it's going to generate a pot of money over the longer term which may allow Apple to declare the iPhone a "success" even though they shift far fewer units than Nokia, the income generated overall may be equivalent or more in Apples favour. Nokia and the NITs though... that's a bit tougher.

Obviously the NITs have achieved a degree of success but then anything can be successful if the goal is set low enough. With your crystal ball in front of you, how many NITs do you think Nokia will be looking to sell in order to declare the "Step 4" NIT (possible release date mid-to-late 2008?) a success? And the Step 5 (mid to late 2009?) also. Bear in mind I know the original N95 shifted 1.5m units globally in 3 months following initial release, which puts "success" for Nokia in perspective!