"Linux and webOS shipments will struggle throughout the forecast period. Shipments of Linux-powered devices will trend down due to greater emphasis on the Android platform but will not disappear entirely as some vendors will continue to support it."

Link

Wouldn't be surprised if that indeed is the case. Just do a few simple counts:

How many devices run Android, and how many run Maemo?
How many companies invest in Android and how many in Maemo?

Unless we see Maemo have a similar distribution as Symbian, it will be devoured.

Chomp!

'Open Android' would be good.

What is the combined market-share of the Android investors compared to the market-share of Nokia?

The number of companies thing is a relatively useless indicator. If it were a real factor, the computing landscape would be very different .. How many companies contribute directly to the core WIndows kernel and how many contribute to the Linux kernel?

http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/news/...n_for_2010.php

Nokia's "masterplan" indicates that the number of produced Maemo devices in 2011 will be about 20% of the company's all "smartphones".

By 2013 the share can only increase. I have faith in this platform.

I've heard the same predictions about linux in general for 15 years.

Even if Android is #1 commercially, it won't stop from a large variety of mobile Linux disto's from thriving. And android with its Linux kernel will actually help this because drivers will be available for hardware.

Looking at n900 there ae still some close components, some drivers and some phone and messaging apps. But the apps could easily be replaced (think FSO.)

More over I am fairly sure at some point android will emulated on linux under X or what not, allowing for use of android apps under other distors. Its simply a matter of time.

I have faith too, but that's 8 years after the initial Maemo device.

Once Maemo matures (Hoping Maemo6 is Maemo 5 matured and working on n900), it will be a OS not to be taken lightly. For now it's just a kid, hoping to play with the big boys.

I love my N900 to bits and wouldn't trade it for any other device, but you can't dispute the fact that OS wise it's only half finished. I kind of count a proper array of applications part of the OS. It's 2010. It has to work and have functionality people are used to.

If the whole N series line up will be Maemo by 2012, it means Maemo has to start getting lots of love very soon.

How old is Windows Mobile (counting CE & Co) ?

Maemo has made greater progress in 4 years than MS in all that time...

The one thing I am a tad concerned for is that in one of the threads around someone discussed that historically for maemo, Nokia has maintained a 2 platform support for a device... Meaning that say, when the M6 device hits the streets, the N900 should get M6, but when the M7 hits - the N900 will not get that, whereas the M6 device will.

Theoretically this should mean a 2 year support plan for any given device or hardware assuming they release a new maemo every year (which wasn't the case, obviously, from OS2008-M5). However, then in another thread (or same one?) they mention the M6 device is rumored to hit as soon as mid-this year.. which would be less a year. At that rate.. the devices won't get a full 2 years of support.

With the G1 still getting updates being released mid-end 2008, the 2 year mark is coming up. However, it does appear the G1 is going to be left behind from 2.0+ which would mean Android is cutting the 2-year mark close.

The original iPhone released in 2007 I believe got the latest 3.1.2 version of the OS released in October of 2009, which is longer than 2 years from it's original release.

The N810 was also released in '07, and received the Diablo update in 08. AFAIK it received no "major" updates after that, meaning it was more or less forgotten within a year. It also doesn't coincide with the mentality of "2 OS's" per device, as it was shipped with OS2008 and went to Diablo, but Diablo was just OS2008 with enhancements. Not a complete new OS, and of course - M5 is not available for the N810.

Granted, this is all speculation and just pieced together from various threads I've seen on the forum here. This is the only reservation I have about Maemo and the N900. While definitely not enough to prevent me from buying the device.. it really makes me interested to see what Nokia has in store for the N900 in the future, and how well a constantly moving Maemo will hold up to Android if Android continues to patch older 1.5-1.6 even with 2.0+ out.